Solana and Ethereum Set Records: A New Overview of the Crypto Market

There is a common belief that the crypto market is completely dependent on Bitcoin. Wherever the first cryptocurrency goes, the rest will follow. This week, however, things were a little different. Bitcoin Bitcoin gained more than 2.5% in price from September 29 to October 6, 2023. On Monday, October 2, BTC surpassed the $28,500 mark, which has not been done for the past month and a half. However, the first cryptocurrency failed to stay above $28,000.

There was no globally important news during the week, but there were a lot of loud forecasts and promises. One of the American Democratic presidential candidates for the 2024 election, Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. said he was going to "end the war that the White House is waging against Bitcoin." Obviously, the nephew of the former U.S. chief executive understands which way the wind is blowing and what is needed for voters. In turn, the founder of the BitMEX platform, Arthur Hayes, gave a bold forecast about the value of bitcoin. In his opinion, the price will reach a minimum of $750,000 to $1 million by the end of 2026. As the main catalysts for this growth, the expert names the increasing expansion of spot ETFs for bitcoin, halving in April 2024, as well as a decrease in interest rates. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, on the other hand, is bearish on the largest cryptocurrency by capitalization. In his opinion, a bearish flag pattern is now forming on the chart, which is usually a signal of the continuation of the downtrend. It is worth noting that Martinez is clearly talking about a short-term trend, as he offers a strategy in which a short stop order of 0.86% is placed with a potential profit of 5%. On the other hand, another master of crypto trading is optimistic. Michaël van de Poppe believes that bitcoin is ready to storm $29,000-$30,000 and rush to new heights. According to technical analysis, in the medium term, there is reason to agree with van de Popp. Since September 11, BTC has been slowly but surely rising, adding about 14%. In addition, the price has already risen above the 50-day moving average (marked in blue) and has come close to the 200-day moving average (marked in orange). The week's high around $28,600 has become a resistance level. $24,800 is the support level.

Ethereum When the value of the Ethereum cryptocurrency hit above $1,750 on October 1, many may have thought about the start of a new bull market. However, this was not the case. A correction began and the price dropped to $1,625. As a result, the week for the world's second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization ended in the red zone. The decrease was 2.69%.

The fall in value was accompanied by a decrease in open interest (the number of open futures and options on the instrument) during the week by almost $0.5 billion, from $5.69 billion on September 29 to $5.18 on October 1. Naturally, if there are few people willing to buy derivatives for ether, then in general, this indicates the predominance of bearish sentiment.

It is important to note the ongoing "flight of ether from exchanges". Analysts at the Santiment platform noted that on October 4, about 110,000 ETH worth $180 million was withdrawn from trading platforms, the largest withdrawal of ether since August 21, 2023. Another interesting detail is the amount of cryptocurrency outside of exchanges. It is at a full all-time high of 115.88 million ETH. At the same time, the exchange offer is at its lowest level over the past 5.5 years. In general, the broadcast does not show any clear dynamics, continuing to swing in the range from $1,550 to $1,750. The Relative Strength Index fell below 50%, which is more of a bearish signal. Long-term growth should be expected if the price rises above the 200-day moving average (marked in orange). In the near term, it is necessary to gain a foothold above the resistance level of $1,750 in order to talk about at least a local bullish trend. The support level remains around $1,530.

Solana But the cryptocurrency of the Solana blockchain added more than 13.5% over the week. At the same time, along the way, it turned out to be even higher: the price reached $24.74, and now it fluctuates around $23.1. By and large, this performance was achieved in two days, on Saturday, September 30 and Sunday, October 1, when the SOL token added first 5.29% and then 11.55%.

The jump is mainly attributed to the growth of Solana's TVL (the number of tokens locked in DeFI). From September 12 to October 2, the figure increased by more than $35 million, reaching a high in 2023. Interestingly, from that moment on, Solana's TVL began to fall, as well as, in fact, the quotes of the cryptocurrency itself. At the moment, the figure is $328.32 million.

In addition, on October 4, the platform presented a rather positive Validator Health Report (literally, the "Validator Health Report"). Solana had the highest Nakamoto coefficient (a measure of decentralization) among all competitors. It is 31. In comparison, Ethereum's Nakamoto coefficient is 25 and Avalanche's is 27. The Solana blockchain, which used to be notorious for frequent failures, has managed to avoid them for two quarters in a row. The last outage was observed on February 26, 2023. This was achieved through software improvements. After the number of validators fell in March 2023, their number began to grow again at the beginning of September. In terms of technical analysis, Solana is in bullish territory. This is confirmed by the fact that the coin is trading above the 50-day moving average (marked in blue). The correction that began on October 2 should not be frightening, as the SOL coin has added more than 40% in value since September 11. Naturally, there must be certain pullbacks, as investors want to lock in profits that have already been made. Further growth is possible after overcoming the resistance level at $24.74. If the price falls below the support level of $22.01, then the forecast should be changed to bearish.

Thus, Bitcoin and Ethereum have not shown a strong movement over the past seven days. The price of the main coins has changed slightly - within 3%. At the same time, the amount of over-the-counter ether reached an all-time high. In turn, Solana showed better dynamics, with TVL showing the best result for the year, and the report was evidence of improved on-chain performance in terms of decentralization and stability.