Chapter One
Let’s Start at the End
At the End of the Day, It’s Earnings
That Matter.
IN THE CLASSIC MUSICAL, The Sound of Music , the character
of Sister Maria (played by Julie Andrews) tells us that we
should start at the beginning because “that is a very fine
place to start.” In our search for profits investing in growth
stocks, however, we shall do the opposite of the Sister’s
advice and start our search at the end. The plain fact is that
at the end of the day what makes for a great growth stock,
one that can grow to 5, 10, or even 20 times your original
investment over time, is the fundamentals of the company.
Can the company continually sell more of its products and
services at higher and higher profits? Can it continue to
innovate and adapt to marketplace changes and maintain a
leadership position? In the end, what makes for a great
growth stock is the ability of the company to continually sell
more of its goods or services at high levels of profitability.
One definitive factor I have found over the years is
that change is a fact of life on Wall Street. All too often
I hear a pundit or guru telling us of one magic-bullet vari-
able that is most important in picking winning stocks—
such as price-to-earnings ratios or price-to-cash flow. Of
course, these magic-bullet fundamentals can fall out
of favor quickly. The one certain thing I can tell you
from all my years of investing research is that many fun-
damental variables have a life span, perhaps two to three
years at most, before they stop working and the edge is
gone. It’s kind of like the great football coach Bill Walsh
and his dynasty football team of the 1980s, the San
Francisco 49ers. Walsh had a clear edge with his newly
invented West Coast offense that befuddled teams around
the league and made the Niners all but unbeatable. How-
ever, over time, teams adapted to this innovation and the
edge was dulled, leading the way for new teams to develop
new game plans that led to Super Bowls. The 49ers had
a great run, but just like on Wall Street, once the edge is