NASDAQ Velocity and Forces: An Interactive Visualization of Activity and Change by Huyen Tue Dao, Adam Bazinet, Robin Berthier and Ben Shneiderman
volume. We wanted to provide an overview of stocks on the NASDAQ and give
users a useful tool to discover events and review the behavior of the market.
1.1 Stock Market Activity
Stock markets basically take one of two forms today: physical trading floors and
electronic markets. Exchanges that have a physical trading floor, like the New York
Stock Exchange (NYSE), have various trading posts at particular locations for trading
of a particular company’s stocks and use an auction system to determine price.
Brokerage firms submit orders via brokers on the trading floor who go to the
appropriate trading post to make their buys and sells. At each trading post is a
member of the exchange known as a specialist. The specialists facilitate trades by
matching buy and sell orders, buying shares if there is no current buyer, and selling
shares if there is no current seller. His/her purpose is to help keep the market flowing
smoothly and continuously. Even with this high level of face-to-face interaction,
markets with physical trading floors are still highly computerized.
Electronic markets, like NASDAQ, are fully-automated systems. In electronic
markets, brokers contact dealers, known as market makers, in order to determine the
best prices for a particular stock depending on if the broker wanted to buy or sell
stocks. The market maker, like the specialist, also responds to current conditions in
the market; however, there are several market makers per stock and their goal is
profit. If there is predominantly selling occurring, then the market maker lowers the
bid price, thus lowering the stock price. If more investors are buying than selling, the
market maker raises prices for shares in his own inventory, thus raising the stock
price. Market makers are continually adjusting prices depending on the volume
traded as well as trends towards buying or selling. The goal of market makers is to
maximize the price a seller pays and minimize the price that he must pay. The
difference between the bid price and the sell price is known as the “spread” and is
generally on the order of cents. In this market, the same stock can have different
prices under different market makers at the same time.
1.2 The NASDAQ Stock Market
The NASDAQ stock market is an American, electronic stock market listing 3,300
companies. The first electronic stock market in the world, NASDAQ currently has
the largest trading volume of the American market at around 2 billion shares per day
[NASDAQ, 07]. While trading in a variety of companies in various sectors,
NASDAQ has become known for being an exchange heavy in technology and lists
some of the biggest high-tech companies in the United States: Microsoft (MSFT),
Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Intel (INTC), among many others. Being an
electronic stock market, NASDAQ executes trades through a computer and
telecommunications system. However, it does have a physical presence in the form of
the NASDAQ MarketSite in New York's Times Square. MarketSite constantly
streams financial information on wall-size displays and contains a TV studio for
broadcasting market news.
1.3 Market Noise, Velocity, and Forces
While stock markets become increasingly high-tech and many markets start closing
their physical floors, there are proponents who argue for the advantages of physical
trading. Specifically, they support the high degree of interpersonal interaction as
a way of enforcing trading rules and allowing for exchange monitoring which helps
maintain the integrity of the market. Further, studies have shown that the sound level
on physical trading floors correlates with price changes. In fact, Coval and Shumway
(2001) state that such information originating from human interaction cannot be fully
replicated by electronic markets. At the same time, markets as a whole have been
adding new technology and upgrading their systems and adding more complex data
measures in order to capture more information about electronic trades. And while the
entirety of information given by human interaction may not be attainable, there is a
broad range of important information that can be provided, thus allowing for forecasts
to be made.
NASDAQ has tried to compensate for the lack of physically-based information
by the creation of two data products called Market Velocity and Market Forces as part
of their Market Analytix information service. Market Velocity aims to capture levels
of pre-trade activity. It measures the frequency and share volume of orders that have
been sent to the trading system, attempting to capture the noise and activity on a
physical floor that indicate changes in direction, momentum, or liquidity in a stock.
On a physical floor, if several brokers are seen crowding around a single post,
frantically trying to place orders, then there is a definite sign of activity in that stock.
By looking at how aggressively orders are being made, Market Velocity tries to
capture this same increased level of activity. As a complement to Market Velocity,
Market Forces utilizes the same information but breaks down orders by whether they
are sell orders or buy orders. At a given time, Forces quantifies whether traders are
predominantly buying or predominantly selling and the momentum in either direction.
The main data feed that comprises the Velocity and Forces data is an
accumulation of buy and sell orders per stock per time of day. Buy and sell order
quantity contribute to a running total of Velocity for that stock and time, and so
Velocity can be seen as the total volume in orders. Forces are kept as a ratio of buy
volume to sell volume for that stock and time. A 21-day running average of previous
Velocity values per stock and time of day gives an expected level of activity for
comparison. It is important to note that Velocity and Forces measure volume in
orders and not trades. Orders are requests for a buy and sell, while trades are
completed orders.
1.4 Visualizing Velocity and Forces
Market Velocity and Forces are part of the Market Analytix information service and
thus generally provided as a data feed; however, there are a few examples of the
Velocity and Forces information being used in visualizations. The Experimental
Market Information site previously provided graphs showing expected and actual
Velocity and separate graphs showing Forces. However, these are no longer being
updated with real-time data. The NASDAQ Marketsite currently has visualizations
for Market Velocity and Market Forces per company (figures 1-2).