Economic Crisis: Explanation and Policy Options by Philip S. Salisbury

Economic Crisis: Explanation and Policy Options by Philip S. Salisbury

CHAPTER 1
Implications for 2007 and Beyond
The economic circumstances in the United States now and during the 1929–
1940 period have several elements in common. There were no bank failures
in 2005 and 2006. There were three bank failures in 2007; there were 10
bank failures (to August 2008). The failure of Lehman Brothers on
September 14, 2008, the decline of the Dow on September 16–17, 2008 by
over 949 points, a housing crisis, a credit crisis, increasing unemployment,
and declining confidence in the U.S. economy are factors that, although
they are currently not as severe as the Great Depression, raise concerns
about future potential decline.
Underlying the Great Depression Era were four dynamics. These
dominant dynamics were variations in M2
 level, in bank reserves, in
unemployment, and personal income. Secondly, the increase (1929–1933),
decline (1937), and then increase (1938–1939) in the adjusted
unemployment levels showed the evolving human impact of the Great
Depression. Included in the number of unemployed is the population
dynamic of the declining numbers of working age male immigrants. Over
the period from 1930 to 1940 the decline was not being offset by equivalent
numbers of immigrant, working age males. From 1931 through 1940, the
annual number of immigrants was less than 100,000.
The period from 2007 to 2029 is affected by a different; though
somewhat similar, dynamic; this dynamic is the aging of the 45–64 age and
sex groups and these group’s subsequent declining incomes. The purpose of
this chapter is to demonstrate how the aging live birth data (See Figure 1.1)
by age and sex group and application of mean income data can be used to
roughly characterize the current and future effects of population subgroups
on the U.S. economy.

Economic Crisis: Explanation and Policy Options by Philip S. Salisbury