Chapter One
Step I: Idea Generation
How do you find investment ideas?
There are tens of thousands of publicly-traded companies on various
stock exchanges around the world. So, where do you begin? The search
for investment ideas takes many forms. At a basic level, it starts with
reading … a lot. Stay on top of industry standards, such as Barron's,
Bloomberg, Grant's, The Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal,
and broaden from there. Successful investors pay attention to what is
going on in the world.
Your search also extends to everyday life and the products and services
around you. There are countless stories of people who found great stock
ideas inspired by observations from their daily lives. What are people
buying? Where are they shopping? What are they talking about? What
websites are they visiting?
Many investors take a bottom-up approach, which focuses on the
fundamentals of individual companies. Within bottom-up, several
common sources of investment ideas are prevalent. These include
undervalued companies, “earnings compounders,” operational
improvement and turnaround stories, M&A, spin-offs, restructurings,
and capital return. Evaluating these opportunities requires a basic
understanding of business drivers, financial analysis, and valuation. You
didn't go to business school? Don't worry—bottom-up investing is the
primary focus of our book and we've got you covered in the chapters
ahead.
Others employ a top-down approach, whereby they search for
opportunities based on macro or secular themes. These themes are
expected to drive accelerated earnings growth and ideally the revaluation
of a particular sector. Key macro top-down strategies center on global
market trends and business cycles, as well as movements in interest
rates, currencies, and commodities. Secular themes include changing
consumption patterns, product penetration rates, and demographics, as
well as emerging technologies, structural competitive shifts, and
regulatory developments.
Experienced investors tend to incorporate elements of both bottom-up
and top-down in their approach. Even the most ardent fundamentals
based investors are highly attuned to the macro environment. It is
imperative to understand the impact that certain scenarios can have on
individual stocks. As the saying goes: “If you don't do macro, macro will
do you.”
The process of generating ideas requires great patience and discipline.
You may need to review hundreds of companies before a high-quality
opportunity stands out. Therefore, it is critical to know where to look and
what to look for.
While certain techniques are prevalent, each investor develops a distinct
style with its own nuances and variations. The experience-based nature
of investing means that professional investors tend to fine-tune their idea
generation techniques over time. Even the most seasoned pros must
evolve and adapt to dynamic market conditions, adding various bells and
whistles along the way.
Screens
Screening tools are helpful for efficiently sourcing investment ideas.
Screens allow you to use customized criteria to sift through large
databases of companies to identify stock opportunities. Pros run screens
on a regular basis in their continuous search for ideas.
A bottom-up screen might target stocks trading below a specified
valuation level or growing above a certain rate. Another might focus on
recent M&A transactions, upcoming IPOs, or companies with new share
repurchase authorizations (see
Exhibit 1.1).
A top-down investor with a thesis on increasing oil prices would screen
for energy sector opportunities in combination with financial criteria.
Alternatively, a thesis might center on the secular trends of increasing
broadband usage or mobile device proliferation. Here, the screen would
focus on sub-sectors within Tech, Media & Telecom (TMT) with
additional filters for selected financial metrics.
A multitude of stock screening tools are widely available online for free
or at relatively low cost (e.g., Yahoo! Finance). At a minimum, you
should set up alerts from financial news sources (e.g., Google Alerts,
WSJ) that automatically pick up newly announced corporate events.