Option Volatility and Pricing Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques, 2nd Edition by Sheldon Natenberg
1 Financial Contracts
My friend Jerry lives in a small town, the same town in which he was born and
raised. Because Jerry’s parents are no longer alive and many of his friends have
left, he is seriously thinking of packing up and moving to a larger city. However,
Jerry recently heard that there is a plan to build a major highway that will pass
very close to his hometown. Because the highway is likely to bring new life to
the town, Jerry is reconsidering his decision to move away. It has also occurred
to Jerry that the highway may bring new business opportunities.
For many years, Jerry’s family was in the restaurant business, and Jerry
is thinking of building a restaurant at the main intersection leading from the
highway into town. If Jerry does decide to build the restaurant, he will need to
acquire land along the highway. Fortunately, Jerry has located a plot of land,
currently owned by Farmer Smith, that is ideally suited for the restaurant. Because
the land does not seem to be in use, Jerry is hoping that Farmer Smith might
be willing to sell it.
If Farmer Smith is indeed willing to sell, how can Jerry acquire the land
on which to build his restaurant? First, Jerry must find out how much Farmer
Smith wants for the land. Let’s say $100,000. If Jerry thinks that the price is
reasonable, he can agree to pay this amount and, in return, take ownership of
the land. In this case, Jerry and Farmer Smith will have entered into a spot or
cash transaction.
In a cash transaction, both parties agree on terms, followed immediately
by an exchange of money for goods. The trading of stock on an exchange is
usually considered to be a cash transaction: the buyer and seller agree on the
price, the buyer pays the seller, and the seller delivers the stock. The actions
essentially take place simultaneously. (Admittedly, on most stock exchanges,
there is a settlement period between the time the price is agreed on and the
time the stock is actually delivered and payment is made. However, the settle-
ment period is relatively short, so for practical purposes most traders consider
this a cash transaction.)
However, it has also occurred to Jerry that it will probably take several
years to build the highway. Because Jerry wants the opening of his restaurant
to coincide with the opening of the highway, he doesn’t need to begin con-
struction on the restaurant for at least another year. There is no point in tak-
ing possession of the land right now—it will just sit unused for a year. Given
his construction schedule, Jerry has decided to approach Farmer Smith with
a slightly different proposition. Jerry will agree to Farmer Smith’s price of
$100,000, but he will propose to Farmer Smith that they complete the transac-
tion in one year, at which time Farmer Smith will receive payment, and Jerry
will take possession of the land. If both parties agree to this, Jerry and Farmer
Smith will have entered into a forward contract. In a forward contract, the parties
agree on the terms now, but the actual exchange of money for goods does not
take place until some later date, the maturity or expiration date.
If Jerry and Farmer Smith enter into a forward contract, it’s unlikely that
the price Farmer Smith will want for his land in one year will be the same price
that he is asking today. Because both the payment and the transfer of goods are
deferred, there may be advantages or disadvantages to one party or the other.
Farmer Smith may point out that if he receives full payment of $100,000 right
now, he can deposit the money in his bank and begin to earn interest. In a for-
ward contract, however, he will have to forego any interest earnings. As a result,
Farmer Smith may insist that he and Jerry negotiate a one-year forward price that
takes into consideration this loss of interest.
Forward contracts are common when a potential buyer requires goods in
the future or when a potential seller knows that a supply of goods will be ready
for sale in the future. A bakery may need a periodic supply of grain to support
operations. Some grain may be required now, but the bakery also knows that
additional grain will be required at regular intervals in the future. In order to
eliminate the risk of rising grain prices, the bakery can buy grain in the forward
market—agreeing on a price now but not taking delivery or making payment
until some later date. In the same way, a farmer who knows that he will have
grain ready for harvest at a later date can sell his crop in the forward market to
insure against falling prices.
When a forward contract is traded on an organized exchange, it is usually
referred to as a futures contract. On a futures exchange, the contract specifications
for a forward contract are standardized to more easily facilitate trading. The
exchange specifies the quantity and quality of goods to be delivered, the date
and place of delivery, and the method of payment. Additionally, the exchange
guarantees the integrity of the contract. Should either the buyer or the seller
default, the exchange assumes the responsibility of fulfilling the terms of the
forward contract.
The earliest futures exchanges enabled producers and users of physical
commodities—grains, precious metals, and energy products—to protect them-
selves against price fluctuations. More recently, many exchanges have intro-
duced futures contracts on financial instruments—stocks and stock indexes,
interest-rate contracts, and foreign currencies. Although there is still significant
trading in physical commodities, the total value of exchange-traded financial
instruments now greatly exceeds the value of physical commodities.
Returning to Jerry, he finds that he has a new problem. The government
has indicated its desire to build the highway, but the necessary funds have not