How do I evaluate probabilities?

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2026-07-02 18:18:53 -

The Fallacy of the Precise Forecast We approach the evaluation of probabilities with a profound, almost desperate, desire for the absolute. We sit before our models, our spreadsheets, and our strategic projections, convinced that if we can just refine our estimates—if we can narrow the margin of error, if we can factor in one more subtle variable—we will finally conquer the...

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