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Michael Pokrovski

adicionou um novo artigo Decision Making and Problem Solving
2026-06-09 05:26:38 -

What is anchoring bias?
What Is Anchoring Bias? The First Number That Quietly Shapes Everything After A person is asked whether the population of a city is more or less than 5 million. Then they are asked to estimate the actual population. Most answers cluster around that initial figure, even when it is clearly arbitrary. If the first number had been 20 million instead, estimates would shift upward. Nothing...

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Michael Pokrovski

adicionou um novo artigo Decision Making and Problem Solving
2026-06-09 05:44:48 -

What is anchoring bias?
What Is the Anchoring Bias? The First Number That Quietly Organizes Thought A person is asked whether the height of a mountain is more or less than 2,000 meters. Then they are asked to estimate its actual height. Even if the initial number is arbitrary, their estimate tends to cluster around it. If the number had been 10,000 instead, their estimate would shift upward. Nothing about the...

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Michael Pokrovski

adicionou um novo artigo Decision Making and Problem Solving
2026-06-09 05:29:10 -

What is availability bias?
What Is Availability Bias? When Memory Becomes a Substitute for Probability A person hears about a plane crash on the news. It is detailed. It is vivid. It is repeated across multiple channels. In the following weeks, flying begins to feel unusually dangerous. Not because the actual risk has changed. But because examples of danger have become easier to recall. This is availability...

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