• What is business cycle theory?
    The Quiet Logic Behind Economic Turbulence There is a peculiar regularity to economic disorder. Booms feel euphoric, busts feel catastrophic, yet—seen from a distance—they trace patterns that are almost unsettling in their familiarity. The same sequence repeats: expansion, overheating, contraction, recovery. It is tempting to interpret these swings as failures of foresight or...
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  • What is a recession?
    What Is a Recession? There is a peculiar ritual that modern societies perform whenever the economy begins to weaken. Politicians deny it. Economists redefine it. Central bankers explain it away. Journalists soften the language with euphemisms. And ordinary people, sensing the deterioration long before official confirmation, quietly begin to change their behavior. They postpone purchases. They...
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